False · Brier 0.81
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 28 Jul 2025 · angermayer-0118
Quote
“the same I expect by the way very short uh in the future like in the first quarter next year so just nine months behind 5 Mod DMT we're going to have the same quality of data as that for DMT and then a little bit behind that we're going to come with a novel fully patent protected version of MDA RMDMMA”
AlphaNooner, July 2025. Angermayer expects DMT (VLS-01) data of the same quality as 5-MeO-DMT in Q1 2026, with R-MDMA data a little later.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- VLS-01 (DMT) Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression meets its primary endpoint
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Mar 2026 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “in the first quarter next year”
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “I expect ... we're going to have the same quality of data as that for DMT”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0109 · deadline 31 Mar 2026 · bin A
Registry entry
atai Life Sciences reports that the Phase 2 trial of VLS-01 (buccal film DMT) in treatment-resistant depression met its prespecified primary endpoint with statistical significance.
TRUE on the date atai Life Sciences' topline press release, the ClinicalTrials.gov results posting, or the first publication reports that the Phase 2 trial of VLS-01 (buccal film DMT) in treatment-resistant depression met its prespecified primary endpoint with statistical significance, as reported by the sponsor at the trial's prespecified alpha. FALSE on the date the sponsor first reports that the primary endpoint was not met, and FALSE at the deadline when no primary-endpoint result has been reported. Secondary endpoints, subgroup analyses, interim analyses and open-label data do not count. Resolution source: atai Life Sciences' topline press release, with the ClinicalTrials.gov record of the trial as the secondary source.
Resolution source: atai Life Sciences topline press release; ClinicalTrials.gov record of the VLS-01 Phase 2 trial in treatment-resistant depression
Readings: 'We're going to have the same quality of data as that for DMT' is read as the VLS-01 Phase 2 trial meeting its prespecified primary endpoint with statistical significance; 'the same quality' points at a positive result, not only at a readout.; 'In the first quarter next year ... just nine months behind' sets the timing of the item, not the content of the event.; The readout itself, in either direction, is the separate event vls-01-phase2-trd-readout.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Mar 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No primary-endpoint result for the VLS-01 Phase 2b (Elumina, NCT06524830) has been reported at checked_through. The sponsor dosed the last of 156 randomised patients on 2026-07-06 and guides topline data to Q4 2026; the primary endpoint is the change from baseline in MADRS total score at day 29 versus placebo. No ClinicalTrials.gov results posting and no publication exist yet. Eli Lilly completed its acquisition of AtaiBeckley on 2026-09-11, so the successor sponsor will report the readout. This supports not_occurred as of today only; it says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 14 events in the field.
Trial outcomes