Known true · enters 1 Jul 2027
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Christian Angermayer · Said 1 Jul 2025 · angermayer-0112
Quote
“Furthermore, BPL-003 might deliver even stronger results with a 2-dose induction, to be proven with further data.”
Section 'The Two-Hour Window: Our Sweet Spot'.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Trial outcomes
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 1 Jul 2027
- Probability
- 0.50 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › C · “might deliver even stronger results”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0106 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry
The sponsor reports data in which a two-dose induction regimen of BPL-003 produces a larger reduction in depression score (MADRS) than the single-dose Phase 2b result.
TRUE on the date of the first sponsor topline press release, ClinicalTrials.gov results posting or peer-reviewed publication that reports a two-dose induction regimen of BPL-003 (intranasal 5-MeO-DMT) in treatment-resistant depression with a larger point-estimate reduction from baseline in the MADRS total score, at the primary timepoint, than the estimate the sponsor reported for the corresponding single active dose in the BPL-003 Phase 2b trial the forecaster describes. The comparison is on the reported point estimates; statistical significance of the difference is not required. FALSE on the date the sponsor first reports a two-dose induction estimate that is not larger, and FALSE at the deadline when no two-dose induction data have been reported.
Resolution source: Sponsor topline press release; ClinicalTrials.gov results or peer-reviewed publication as a secondary source
Readings: 'Even stronger results' is read as a larger reduction in the MADRS total score, the primary depression measure of the Phase 2b trial the forecaster summarises in the same post.; 'To be proven with further data' names the resolution event: the sponsor must report two-dose induction data, not merely plan them.; 'Might deliver' is a hedge on likelihood, not a condition.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- Known trueAn item whose event has already happened but whose deadline has not passed. Shown as 'known true, enters on <deadline>'; pending in every metric until then. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 1 Jul 2027
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- occurred on 23 Sep 2025 · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- On 2025-09-23 the sponsor reported the Phase 2a two-dose induction regimen (NCT05660642, 8 mg then 12 mg two weeks later, n=13 enrolled, 12 per protocol): mean MADRS reduction from baseline 13.3 points at day 2, 12.9 at day 8, 19.0 one week after the second dose, and 13.7 at week 12. The corresponding single active dose in the Phase 2b (2025-07-01) gave 12.1 points for 8 mg and 11.1 for 12 mg at the day 29 primary timepoint. The two-dose point estimate, 19.0, is larger, and the week 12 estimate, 13.7, is also larger. The 2025-11-10 Phase 2b open-label extension confirms the direction: 22.3 points at day 57 for patients whose first dose was 8 mg. The criterion asks only for a larger point estimate, not a significant difference.
- Evidence
- atai Life Sciences and Beckley Psytech Report Positive Phase 2a Data Demonstrating Improved Outcomes with a Two-Dose Induction Regimen of BPL-003 in Patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression · 23 Sep 2025
- atai Life Sciences and Beckley Psytech Announce Positive Topline Results from the Phase 2b Study of BPL-003 in Patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression · 1 Jul 2025
- AtaiBeckley Announces Positive Topline Data from the Phase 2b Open-Label Extension Study of BPL-003, Supporting Safety and Efficacy of a Second Dose in Patients with Treatment-Resistant Depression · 10 Nov 2025
- BPL-003: Positive Phase 2b Open-Label Extension Study Data · 10 Nov 2025
Adversarial recheck
upheld (state): Argued not_occurred on the criterion words 'at the primary timepoint'. The Phase 2b primary timepoint is Day 29; the 2025-09-23 Phase 2a two-dose release reports Day 2, Day 8, one week after the second dose and Week 12, but no Day 29 value, so a strict same-timepoint comparison has no matching number. The argument fails on the size of the gap. Phase 2b single active doses: 12.1 points (8 mg) and 11.1 points (12 mg) at Day 29. Phase 2a two-dose induction (8 mg then 12 mg): 19.0 points one week after the second dose and 13.7 points at Week 12, both larger than either single-dose estimate; even the pre-second-dose Day 8 value, 12.9, exceeds them. The criterion asks only for a larger point estimate, not significance and not a matched day. No earlier two-dose induction report exists. Upheld.
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Angermayer promised BPL-003 two-dose induction reports a larger antidepressant effect than the single-dose Phase 2b result 2 times; it happened on 23 Sep 2025.
Cluster E-0106
Timeline
1 claim against 15 events in the field.
Trial outcomes