Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 31 Dec 2032

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 19 Feb 2024 · doblin-0211

Quote

“By 2032 we've had some estimates that we will hopefully treat about 1.4 million people”
· Shawn Ryan Show - #97 Rick Doblin - MDMA Psychedelic Assisted Therapy (transcript) · podcast

Doblin on the Shawn Ryan Show #97 cites MAPS estimates of treating about 1.4 million people with MDMA-assisted therapy by 2032, against 13 million with PTSD.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
31 Dec 2032 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “By 2032”
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “we will hopefully treat about 1.4 million people”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0091 · deadline 31 Dec 2032 · bin A
Registry entry

The cumulative number of people treated with midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD reaches about 1.4 million, per the public counts published by MAPS and by the sponsor of the programme.

Resolved on the named data series only: the cumulative count of people treated with midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD, as published by MAPS or by the sponsor of the midomafetamine programme (annual report, press release or investor materials), with a named prescription-data series (for example IQVIA) as the secondary count when the sponsor publishes none. TRUE on the date of the first such publication that reports a cumulative total at or above 1.12 million people, the lower edge of the fixed band of plus or minus 20 percent around the bare point number of about 1.4 million. Patients dosed in clinical trials count. FALSE at the deadline when no publication reports a total in or above that band. If no count has published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored.

Resolution source: MAPS and sponsor public counts of people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy; a named prescription-data series (IQVIA) as the secondary count

Readings: 'We will hopefully treat about 1.4 million people' is a bare point number, so it takes the fixed band of plus or minus 20 percent: 1.12 million to 1.68 million.; 'We' is read as the MDMA-assisted therapy programme, not MAPS staff, so people treated by any clinic delivering the therapy count.; 'Some estimates' and 'hopefully' are hedges on the number, not a second condition.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Dec 2032
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No publication by MAPS or the sponsor reports a cumulative total at or above 1.12 million people. The highest count MAPS publishes is approximately 1,700 human subjects dosed with MDMA in research, three orders of magnitude below the band. No prescription-data series can add to it: midomafetamine is not approved, so there are no prescriptions; MAPS stated on 2026-08-10 that the NDA was only resubmitted, after the 2024 complete response letter. Realized value 1700 is the MAPS research-subject count, the broadest figure the named series publishes. Not occurred as of 2026-09-14.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
ABOUT 1.4 MILLION…About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy · stated 19 Feb 2024About 1.4 million people treated with MDMA-assisted therapy · restated 19 Feb 2024 · p 90%90%TODAY20252026202720282029203020312032

Practice adoption

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