Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Void · Condition unmet

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“the difference is that it's not a take-home medicine. So it's only administered under direct supervision of a therapist.”
· The Joe Rogan Experience #1964 - Rick Doblin (transcript) · podcast

Asked about illegal diversion if MDMA becomes legal, Doblin answers that the approved product is not a take-home medicine and is given only under direct therapist supervision.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 31 Mar 2025
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “it's not a take-home medicine. So it's only administered under direct supervision of a therapist”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, conditional, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0078 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

The FDA approves midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for post-traumatic stress disorder with labeling or a REMS that requires the drug to be administered under direct supervision in a certified healthcare setting and not dispensed to patients for use outside that setting.

TRUE on the date of an FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD, under any sponsor name, whose approved labeling or REMS document requires that each dose is administered in a certified healthcare setting under the supervision of a healthcare provider, and does not permit dispensing the drug to the patient for use outside that setting. FALSE on the date of an approval whose labeling or REMS permits a pharmacy to dispense the product to the patient for use outside a healthcare setting, or permits unsupervised use. The event is unresolved while no approval exists. Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approved labeling) read with REMS@FDA.

Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approved labeling) with REMS@FDA

Readings: 'Only be able to administer MDMA under direct supervision in clinic settings', 'not as a take-home drug but only for use in controlled therapeutic settings' and 'it will be approved only under direct supervision of therapists' name the same restriction.; 'Not like a normal drug that's approved' is the contrast with retail dispensing.; A REMS that certifies healthcare settings and requires monitoring during the session counts as 'direct supervision'; whether the supervising person is a licensed therapist or another healthcare provider does not change the reading.; The claim presupposes FDA approval of midomafetamine for PTSD; if no approval occurs in the window the condition is unmet and the item is void rather than scored.; E-0067 (retail-pharmacy dispensing for a psilocybin, LSD or MDMA product, class reading) is the mirror image on a wider asset; this entry is on midomafetamine alone, so that a psilocybin decision does not resolve it. The relation is logged for the registry.; Distinct from mdma-rems-sponsor-trained-therapists (who may administer) and mdma-approval-carries-rems (any REMS).

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
31 Mar 2025
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No FDA approval of midomafetamine for PTSD exists, so no approved labeling or REMS can be read. FDA issued a complete response letter on 2024-08-09 for NDA 215455 (Lykos). Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos) resubmitted the NDA on about 2026-08-09, announced 2026-08-10, without a new phase 3; the application is under review with no action date reported. Drugs@FDA lists no approved midomafetamine product at the access date. A resubmission and an open review are not an approval, so the criterion stays unmet as of 2026-09-14. This says nothing about later dates.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
20202021202220232024202520262020202120222023202420252026TODAY2019-05-10: by 2021-05-10 · p 0.902022-12-12: by 2024-12-12 · p 0.902023-03-31: by 2025-03-31 · p 0.902023-06-01: by 2025-06-01 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0078

Timeline

1 claim against 60 events in the field.

saiddueevent
5 May 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon issues its first psilocybin service center license (EPIC Healing Eugene);10 May 2023 · DEA and HHS: First temporary extension of COVID-19 telemedicine flexibilities for controlled 23 May 2023 · Colorado Governor Polis: Governor signs SB23-290 (Natural Medicine Regulation and Legalization), creating26 Jun 2023 · FDA: FDA issues draft guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Invest1 Jul 2023 · TGA (Australia): Rescheduling takes effect: authorised psychiatrists may prescribe MDMA for PTSD 4 Aug 2023 · Sage Therapeutics / Biogen (zuranolone): FDA approves Zurzuvae (zuranolone) as the first oral treatment for postpartum de29 Aug 2023 · HHS: HHS recommends to DEA that marijuana be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III of7 Oct 2023 · California Governor Newsom: Newsom vetoes SB 58, which would have decriminalized psilocybin and other plant 10 Oct 2023 · DEA and HHS: Second temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati10 Oct 2023 · FDA: FDA warns patients and providers about risks of compounded ketamine products, in18 Oct 2023 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-012 (package insert update).13 Dec 2023 · DEA: DEA again proposes placing DOI and DOC (phenethylamine research hallucinogens) iDEA: DEA AGAIN PROPOSES PLACING DOI AND DOC (PHENETHYLAMINE RESEARCH HALLUCINOGENS) I13 Feb 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA accepts Lykos's NDA for midomafetamine (MDMA)-assisted therapy for PTSD with7 Mar 2024 · FDA / MindMed: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to MM120 (LSD D-tartrate) for genera13 Mar 2024 · Cybin (CYB003): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to CYB003 for adjunctive treatment o13 Mar 2024 · FDA / Cybin: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to CYB003 (deuterated psilocybin ana21 Mar 2024 · Utah Legislature: SB 266 becomes law without the governor's signature, allowing large Utah health 26 Mar 2024 · Neuronetics (NeuroStar): FDA clears NeuroStar TMS as a first-line adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 16 Apr 2024 · European Medicines Agency: EMA holds a multi-stakeholder workshop 'Psychedelics: towards an EU regulatory f21 May 2024 · DOJ / DEA: DOJ publishes proposed rule to transfer marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II4 Jun 2024 · FDA PDAC / Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee votes against MDMA-assisted the4 Jun 2024 · FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee: Advisory committee votes 2-9 that MDMA-assisted therapy is not shown effective f7 Jun 2024 · DEA: DEA stays the June 10, 2024 administrative hearing on Schedule I placement of DO9 Aug 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA issues a complete response letter (dated August 8) for MDMA capsules for PTS9 Aug 2024 · Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA issues a Complete Response Letter for MDMA-assisted therapy in PTSD and asks29 Aug 2024 · DEA: DEA publishes notice of an administrative hearing on the proposed marijuana resc26 Sep 2024 · Bristol Myers Squibb (Cobenfy / KarXT): FDA approves Cobenfy (xanomeline-trospium), the first muscarinic agonist for sch4 Nov 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-015 (package insert revision).5 Nov 2024 · Massachusetts voters: Massachusetts Question 4, a regulated natural psychedelics measure, fails with 419 Nov 2024 · DEA and HHS: Third temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicatio31 Dec 2024 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado begins accepting natural medicine business license applications; the re31 Dec 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-013.13 Jan 2025 · DEA Administrative Law Judge: DEA's chief ALJ cancels the January 21, 2025 marijuana rescheduling hearing pend17 Jan 2025 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rule creating special registrations for telemedicine pres17 Jan 2025 · DEA and HHS: Final rules allow a six-month buprenorphine supply via audio-only telemedicine a21 Jan 2025 · FDA / Johnson & Johnson: FDA approves Spravato (esketamine) as monotherapy for adults with treatment-resi21 Jan 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato): FDA approves Spravato as the first monotherapy for treatment-resistant depressio24 Mar 2025 · DEA and HHS: DEA and HHS delay the effective date of the buprenorphine and VA telemedicine fi24 Mar 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-018; the REMS still requires certified31 Mar 2025 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado issues its first healing center license to The Center Origin (announced7 Apr 2025 · New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham: Governor signs SB 219, the Medical Psilocybin Act (effective June 20, 2025): DOH15 May 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-021: minor revision to the Patient Mon16 May 2025 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary tells NewsNation the FDA will give psychedelic trial data 'an expeditious24 Jun 2025 · HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: At a House Energy and Commerce hearing, Kennedy says HHS is 'working very hard' 10 Jul 2025 · Czech Senate: Czech Senate gives final approval to a law allowing medical use of psilocybin fr11 Jul 2025 · BfArM (Germany): BfArM approves the EU's first compassionate use programme for psilocybin in trea18 Jul 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA advisory committee votes against brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD, cit31 Jul 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-024.4 Sep 2025 · FDA: FDA publicly releases the Lykos MDMA complete response letter, citing unreported4 Sep 2025 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA publicly releases the August 2024 Lykos CRL, detailing concerns on safety re18 Sep 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay's accelerated Deep TMS protocol for MDD, shortening treatme22 Sep 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA issues a CRL for brexpiprazole plus sertraline in PTSD, citing insufficient 9 Oct 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-025 with vendor-related changes to the6 Nov 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Caplyta, adjunctive MDD): FDA approves Caplyta (lumateperone) as adjunctive treatment for MDD based on two13 Nov 2025 · BrainsWay (Deep TMS): FDA clears BrainsWay Deep TMS as an adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 to 215 Dec 2025 · New Mexico Department of Health: At the Medical Psilocybin Advisory Board's first meeting, DOH says patient acces18 Dec 2025 · President Trump: Executive order directs the Attorney General to complete marijuana rescheduling 31 Dec 2025 · DEA and HHS: Fourth temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati1 Jan 2026 · Czech Republic: Czech medical psilocybin framework takes effect: psychiatrists may administer ps5 Jan 2026 · GH Research (GH001): FDA lifts the clinical hold on GH001, clearing a global phase 3 program in TRD tFDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · stated 31 Mar 2023FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · restated 31 Mar 2023 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS requires supervised in-clinic administration of midomafetamine, with no take-home dispensing · void 31 Mar 202590%TODAY202420252026

Regulatory decisions