Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Void · Condition unmet

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“And if approved, the only therapists that will be able to directly administer it to patients are going to be therapists that have been through our training program.”
· Rick Doblin: How Can We Use Psychedelic-Assisted Therapy To Treat Trauma? : NPR · podcast

Doblin on NPR's TED Radio Hour predicts that after approval only therapists trained by MAPS will be able to administer MDMA to patients.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 19 Mar 2023
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “are going to be therapists that have been through our training program”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, conditional, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0077 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

The FDA approves midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for post-traumatic stress disorder with labeling or a REMS under which only therapists who have completed the sponsor's (MAPS) training program may administer the treatment.

TRUE on the date of an FDA approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD, under any sponsor name, whose approved labeling or REMS document requires that the therapists or healthcare providers who administer the drug or conduct dosing sessions complete a training or certification program provided or certified by the sponsor (MAPS, MAPS PBC or a successor), with no other route to eligibility. FALSE on the date of an approval whose labeling and REMS permit administration by providers without sponsor-provided training, name the sponsor's program as one acceptable route among others, or set no provider training requirement. The event is unresolved while no approval exists. Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approved labeling) read with REMS@FDA.

Resolution source: Drugs@FDA (approved labeling) with REMS@FDA

Readings: 'The only therapists who will be able to directly administer it ... are going to be therapists that have been through our training program' (doblin-0088) and 'MAPS will be the only FDA-approved entity to train therapists' (doblin-0094) name the same restriction; so does doblin-0140.; 'Directly administer it to patients' = the therapists or providers who conduct the MDMA dosing sessions; prescribers who do not sit in the session are not the set the words name.; 'Our training program' = the MAPS / MAPS PBC MDMA Therapy Training Program under any later corporate name.; A REMS whose certification program is run by the sponsor, or by a training body it designates, counts; a REMS that accepts training from any accredited provider does not. A REMS that names the sponsor's program as one acceptable route among others resolves FALSE: the words say 'the only therapists'.; Distinct from mdma-approval-carries-rems (any REMS) and from mdma-rems-supervised-clinic-administration (setting restriction).

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
19 Mar 2023
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
unresolvable · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
The criterion cannot be applied yet: it holds the event unresolved while no approval exists. The FDA has not approved midomafetamine for PTSD under any sponsor name, so there is no approved labeling and no REMS document to read for a sponsor-trained-therapist requirement. Drugs@FDA holds no midomafetamine application record and REMS@FDA holds no midomafetamine entry. The only FDA action on NDA 215455 is the 2024 complete response letter, which asks for a new Phase 3 trial. Re-check after any future approval.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Receding horizon

Doblin promised FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists 4 times; it has not happened.

promised datehappened
201820192020202120222023202420252026201820192020202120222023202420252026TODAY2018-01-05: by 2020-01-05 · p 0.902019-04-01: by 2021-04-01 · p 0.902019-09-10: by 2021-09-10 · p 0.902021-03-19: by 2023-03-19 · p 0.90X SAID ON · Y PROMISED BY · DASHED: PROMISED = SAID · DOT AREA = P

Cluster E-0077

Timeline

1 claim against 60 events in the field.

saiddueevent
5 Jan 2022 · Health Canada: Canada Gazette publishes SOR/2021-271, restoring Special Access Program requests14 Jan 2022 · DEA: DEA proposes placing five tryptamine hallucinogens (4-OH-DiPT, 5-MeO-AMT, 5-MeO-16 Feb 2022 · FDA: FDA alerts health care professionals to potential risks of compounded ketamine n27 Jul 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its proposed Schedule I placement of five tryptamines after hearin19 Aug 2022 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity, AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion), the first oral NMDA receptor29 Aug 2022 · DEA: DEA withdraws its April 2022 proposal to place DOI and DOC in Schedule I, citing6 Sep 2022 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): FDA grants 510(k) clearance to Magnus Medical's SAINT Neuromodulation System (MR8 Nov 2022 · Colorado voters: Colorado voters approve Proposition 122 (Natural Medicine Health Act), decrimina27 Dec 2022 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA adopts final administrative rules implementing Measure 109 psilocybin servic2 Jan 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon Psilocybin Services begins accepting applications for manufacturer, servi3 Feb 2023 · TGA (Australia): TGA announces final decision to reschedule psilocybin (TRD) and MDMA (PTSD) to S1 Mar 2023 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rules on telemedicine prescribing of controlled substance5 May 2023 · Oregon Psilocybin Services: Oregon issues its first psilocybin service center license (EPIC Healing Eugene);10 May 2023 · DEA and HHS: First temporary extension of COVID-19 telemedicine flexibilities for controlled 23 May 2023 · Colorado Governor Polis: Governor signs SB23-290 (Natural Medicine Regulation and Legalization), creating26 Jun 2023 · FDA: FDA issues draft guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Invest1 Jul 2023 · TGA (Australia): Rescheduling takes effect: authorised psychiatrists may prescribe MDMA for PTSD 4 Aug 2023 · Sage Therapeutics / Biogen (zuranolone): FDA approves Zurzuvae (zuranolone) as the first oral treatment for postpartum de29 Aug 2023 · HHS: HHS recommends to DEA that marijuana be moved from Schedule I to Schedule III of7 Oct 2023 · California Governor Newsom: Newsom vetoes SB 58, which would have decriminalized psilocybin and other plant 10 Oct 2023 · DEA and HHS: Second temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicati10 Oct 2023 · FDA: FDA warns patients and providers about risks of compounded ketamine products, in18 Oct 2023 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-012 (package insert update).13 Dec 2023 · DEA: DEA again proposes placing DOI and DOC (phenethylamine research hallucinogens) iDEA: DEA AGAIN PROPOSES PLACING DOI AND DOC (PHENETHYLAMINE RESEARCH HALLUCINOGENS) I13 Feb 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA accepts Lykos's NDA for midomafetamine (MDMA)-assisted therapy for PTSD with7 Mar 2024 · FDA / MindMed: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to MM120 (LSD D-tartrate) for genera13 Mar 2024 · Cybin (CYB003): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to CYB003 for adjunctive treatment o13 Mar 2024 · FDA / Cybin: FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy designation to CYB003 (deuterated psilocybin ana21 Mar 2024 · Utah Legislature: SB 266 becomes law without the governor's signature, allowing large Utah health 26 Mar 2024 · Neuronetics (NeuroStar): FDA clears NeuroStar TMS as a first-line adjunct for MDD in adolescents aged 15 16 Apr 2024 · European Medicines Agency: EMA holds a multi-stakeholder workshop 'Psychedelics: towards an EU regulatory f21 May 2024 · DOJ / DEA: DOJ publishes proposed rule to transfer marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule II4 Jun 2024 · FDA PDAC / Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee votes against MDMA-assisted the4 Jun 2024 · FDA Psychopharmacologic Drugs Advisory Committee: Advisory committee votes 2-9 that MDMA-assisted therapy is not shown effective f7 Jun 2024 · DEA: DEA stays the June 10, 2024 administrative hearing on Schedule I placement of DO9 Aug 2024 · FDA / Lykos Therapeutics: FDA issues a complete response letter (dated August 8) for MDMA capsules for PTS9 Aug 2024 · Lykos Therapeutics (midomafetamine): FDA issues a Complete Response Letter for MDMA-assisted therapy in PTSD and asks29 Aug 2024 · DEA: DEA publishes notice of an administrative hearing on the proposed marijuana resc26 Sep 2024 · Bristol Myers Squibb (Cobenfy / KarXT): FDA approves Cobenfy (xanomeline-trospium), the first muscarinic agonist for sch4 Nov 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato labeling supplement S-015 (package insert revision).5 Nov 2024 · Massachusetts voters: Massachusetts Question 4, a regulated natural psychedelics measure, fails with 419 Nov 2024 · DEA and HHS: Third temporary extension of telemedicine flexibilities for controlled medicatio31 Dec 2024 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado begins accepting natural medicine business license applications; the re31 Dec 2024 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-013.13 Jan 2025 · DEA Administrative Law Judge: DEA's chief ALJ cancels the January 21, 2025 marijuana rescheduling hearing pend17 Jan 2025 · DEA: DEA publishes proposed rule creating special registrations for telemedicine pres17 Jan 2025 · DEA and HHS: Final rules allow a six-month buprenorphine supply via audio-only telemedicine a21 Jan 2025 · FDA / Johnson & Johnson: FDA approves Spravato (esketamine) as monotherapy for adults with treatment-resi21 Jan 2025 · Johnson & Johnson (Spravato): FDA approves Spravato as the first monotherapy for treatment-resistant depressio24 Mar 2025 · DEA and HHS: DEA and HHS delay the effective date of the buprenorphine and VA telemedicine fi24 Mar 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-018; the REMS still requires certified31 Mar 2025 · Colorado Natural Medicine Division: Colorado issues its first healing center license to The Center Origin (announced7 Apr 2025 · New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham: Governor signs SB 219, the Medical Psilocybin Act (effective June 20, 2025): DOH15 May 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-021: minor revision to the Patient Mon16 May 2025 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary tells NewsNation the FDA will give psychedelic trial data 'an expeditious24 Jun 2025 · HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: At a House Energy and Commerce hearing, Kennedy says HHS is 'working very hard' 10 Jul 2025 · Czech Senate: Czech Senate gives final approval to a law allowing medical use of psilocybin fr11 Jul 2025 · BfArM (Germany): BfArM approves the EU's first compassionate use programme for psilocybin in trea18 Jul 2025 · Otsuka / Lundbeck (Rexulti, PTSD): FDA advisory committee votes against brexpiprazole plus sertraline for PTSD, cit31 Jul 2025 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-024.FDA LABELING OR R…FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · stated 19 Mar 2021FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · restated 19 Mar 2021 · p 90%FDA labeling or REMS restricts midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) to sponsor-trained therapists · void 19 Mar 202390%TODAY20222023202420252026

Regulatory decisions