Void · Condition unmet
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 7 Apr 2016 · doblin-0042
Quote
“there's the likelihood that once we make it into an FDA-approved medicine, insurance companies will then be willing, now it's federally legal, to cover it as a medicine for what it's been proved to be, particularly if it saves them money on other medicines.”
Doblin on Joe Rogan #782, discussing the MAPS marijuana-for-PTSD study, predicts that FDA approval of marijuana as a medicine would lead insurers to cover it.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 7 Apr 2018
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “there's the likelihood that”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- conditional, affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0071 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
At least one US health insurer publishes a coverage policy that covers an FDA-approved botanical marijuana product for the indication on its FDA label.
TRUE on the effective date of the first published coverage policy, medical policy bulletin, formulary listing or fee schedule of a US health insurer, Medicare or a state Medicaid program that covers an FDA-approved botanical (whole-plant or smoked) marijuana product for the indication named on its FDA-approved label. Coverage of cannabinoid drugs that are not botanical marijuana (for example dronabinol, nabilone or a purified cannabidiol product) does not count. Reimbursement under a state medical-marijuana program without FDA approval does not count. Resolution source: the payer's published policy bulletin, with the CMS Medicare Coverage Database for Medicare and Medicaid policies. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy is in effect.
Resolution source: Payer policy bulletins (commercial insurers, state Medicaid); CMS Medicare Coverage Database
Readings: 'Insurance companies will then be willing to cover it as a medicine' is read as at least one US health insurer publishing a coverage policy; no payer is named, so any US health plan counts.; The ledger reads 'plans will cover' as 'a plan covers', as in E-0056.; 'It' is the marijuana that MAPS is studying for PTSD, the subject of the sentence; the label indication at approval sets the covered indication.; 'Particularly if it saves them money on other medicines' is a reason, not a second condition.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 7 Apr 2018
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No such coverage policy as of 2026-09-14. The criterion needs a payer policy that covers an FDA-approved botanical marijuana product for its labeled indication. No such product exists: Drugs@FDA holds no cannabis or marijuana application, so no label and no covered indication exist. The Medicare Coverage Database shows no coverage document for a botanical marijuana drug. Coverage of dronabinol, nabilone or Epidiolex does not count, state medical-marijuana reimbursement does not count, and the 2026 Medicare Advantage hemp-product benefit is not an FDA-approved botanical marijuana drug. This says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 26 events in the field.
Payer and policy