Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Void · Condition unmet

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

“there's the likelihood that once we make it into an FDA-approved medicine, insurance companies will then be willing, now it's federally legal, to cover it as a medicine for what it's been proved to be, particularly if it saves them money on other medicines.”
· The Joe Rogan Experience #782 - Rick Doblin (transcript) · podcast

Doblin on Joe Rogan #782, discussing the MAPS marijuana-for-PTSD study, predicts that FDA approval of marijuana as a medicine would lead insurers to cover it.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Payer and policy
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 7 Apr 2018
Probability
0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “there's the likelihood that”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
conditional, affiliated, retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0071 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry

At least one US health insurer publishes a coverage policy that covers an FDA-approved botanical marijuana product for the indication on its FDA label.

TRUE on the effective date of the first published coverage policy, medical policy bulletin, formulary listing or fee schedule of a US health insurer, Medicare or a state Medicaid program that covers an FDA-approved botanical (whole-plant or smoked) marijuana product for the indication named on its FDA-approved label. Coverage of cannabinoid drugs that are not botanical marijuana (for example dronabinol, nabilone or a purified cannabidiol product) does not count. Reimbursement under a state medical-marijuana program without FDA approval does not count. Resolution source: the payer's published policy bulletin, with the CMS Medicare Coverage Database for Medicare and Medicaid policies. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy is in effect.

Resolution source: Payer policy bulletins (commercial insurers, state Medicaid); CMS Medicare Coverage Database

Readings: 'Insurance companies will then be willing to cover it as a medicine' is read as at least one US health insurer publishing a coverage policy; no payer is named, so any US health plan counts.; The ledger reads 'plans will cover' as 'a plan covers', as in E-0056.; 'It' is the marijuana that MAPS is studying for PTSD, the subject of the sentence; the label indication at approval sets the covered indication.; 'Particularly if it saves them money on other medicines' is a reason, not a second condition.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
7 Apr 2018
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
No such coverage policy as of 2026-09-14. The criterion needs a payer policy that covers an FDA-approved botanical marijuana product for its labeled indication. No such product exists: Drugs@FDA holds no cannabis or marijuana application, so no label and no covered indication exist. The Medicare Coverage Database shows no coverage document for a botanical marijuana drug. Coverage of dronabinol, nabilone or Epidiolex does not count, state medical-marijuana reimbursement does not count, and the 2026 Medicare Advantage hemp-product benefit is not an FDA-approved botanical marijuana drug. This says nothing about later dates.
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 26 events in the field.

saiddueevent
7 Mar 2023 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Mace and Dean: Breakthrough Therapies Act reintroduced to let DEA move FDA breakthrough-designaSENS. BOOKER AND PAUL; REPS. MACE AND DEAN: BREAKTHROUGH THERAPIES ACT REINTRODUCED TO LET DEA MOVE FDA BREAKTHROUGH-DESIGNA22 Dec 2023 · Congress / President Biden: FY2024 NDAA signed with Section 723: $10M and a DoD process for service members 5 Jan 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA issues a request for applications to fund research on MDMA, psilocybin and ot26 Mar 2024 · ICER: ICER draft evidence report finds evidence on MDMA-assisted psychotherapy for PTS27 Jun 2024 · ICER: ICER final report: panel votes 14-1 that evidence is inadequate to show net heal23 Sep 2024 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: MHPAEA final rule published (released September 9): NQTL comparative-analysis an3 Dec 2024 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA awards up to $1.5M over five years for its first VA-funded psychedelic study:9 Dec 2024 · CMS: CY2025 PFS final rule published; CMS keeps telehealth policies under its own aut17 Jan 2025 · ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC): ERIC sues in D.D.C. to vacate parts of the 2024 MHPAEA final rule as arbitrary, 15 May 2025 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: Departments announce they will not enforce the 2024 MHPAEA final rule's new requ11 Jun 2025 · Texas Governor Abbott: Governor signs SB 2308 committing $50M in state matching funds for a consortium 1 Oct 2025 · CMS / Congress: Medicare telehealth flexibilities lapse with the government shutdown; pre-pandem3 Nov 2025 · Department of Veterans Affairs: VA expands psychedelic research to nine VA facilities studying MDMA and psilocyb5 Nov 2025 · CMS: CY2026 PFS final rule published: in-person visit within 12 months required for t12 Nov 2025 · Congress / President Trump: H.R. 5371 signed, ending the shutdown and restoring Medicare telehealth flexibil24 Nov 2025 · Magnus Medical (SAINT): CMS OPPS final rule keeps 2026 hospital outpatient payment stable for SAINT neur4 Dec 2025 · Sens. Booker and Paul; Reps. Dean and Mace: Freedom to Heal Act introduced to require a DEA registration pathway for physici15 Jan 2026 · Texas HHSC: UTHealth Houston-led IMPACT consortium (UTMB, Dell Med, Baylor and others) named5 Feb 2026 · Congress / President Trump: FY2026 appropriations package signed, extending Medicare telehealth flexibilitie30 Mar 2026 · DOL, HHS and Treasury: In an ERIC v. DOL status report, the departments say they will no longer defend 31 Mar 2026 · Texas Lt. Gov. Patrick and Speaker Burrows: Texas announces it will fund the $50M ibogaine trials itself through in-state in30 Jun 2026 · Reps. Luttrell, Correa, Bergman and McCaul: IBOGAINE Act (H.R. 9559) introduced in the House to advance ibogaine research an13 Jul 2026 · VA, HHS and FDA: VA signs memoranda of understanding with HHS and FDA to expand psychedelic trial14 Jul 2026 · HRSA: HRSA issues a request for information on training and care-delivery models for s22 Jul 2026 · U.S. House of Representatives: House passes FY2027 NDAA amendments extending DoD psychedelic clinical trials th7 Aug 2026 · VA Secretary Doug Collins: Collins says ibogaine is the VA's next psychedelic research focus during a SeattA US HEALTH INSUR…A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · stated 7 Apr 2016A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · restated 7 Apr 2016 · p 70%A US health insurer covers FDA-approved botanical cannabis as a medicine · void 7 Apr 201870%TODAY20172019202120232025

Payer and policy