False · Brier 0.49
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 4 Jun 2021 · doblin-0144
Quote
“By 2024, 2025, there should be FDA approval for psilocybin, for depression, potentially for alcohol use disorder, other indications, and they'll be administered in these exact kind of centers.”
Doblin on Joe Rogan #1661 forecasts FDA approval of psilocybin for depression and possibly alcohol use disorder by 2024-2025.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2025 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “By 2024, 2025”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “there should be FDA approval for psilocybin, for depression”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- phase2_to_approval_all · 0.15 · halvedWhen the item window is shorter than the base-rate class's median time to decision, the base rate is halved. The halved value is an upper bound that favours the person. Method › to 0.07 (window shorter than the median 72 months)
- Tags
- retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0003 · deadline 31 Dec 2025 · bin B
Registry entry
The FDA approves a drug product whose active ingredient is psilocybin for any indication.
TRUE on the date of the first FDA approval letter or Drugs@FDA entry (or the sponsor's approval announcement) for a drug product whose active ingredient is psilocybin, for any indication and under any sponsor (COMP360 by Compass Pathways, or another psilocybin product). A complete response letter, a positive advisory vote, a breakthrough therapy designation, a filing acceptance or a state program that permits psilocybin use is not an FDA approval. Approval of a psilocybin analogue (for example a deuterated psilocybin) or of another tryptamine (5-MeO-DMT, DMT) does not count. Resolution source: Drugs@FDA. FALSE at the deadline when no such approval appears in Drugs@FDA.
Resolution source: Drugs@FDA
Readings: The forecaster names no indication or sponsor, so any psilocybin product for any indication counts.; 'behind us' reads as reaching FDA approval after MDMA-assisted therapy; the event resolves on the FDA approval of psilocybin alone, without reference to the MDMA approval date.; 'These substances' (MDMA and psilocybin, with 'psilocybin soon to follow' in the same passage) names the substance, not a sponsor or indication, so any psilocybin NDA approval for a psychiatric indication counts.; The event is on products whose active ingredient is psilocybin (as COMP360 is), not on analogues or other tryptamines.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2025
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 13 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- Not approved as of 2026-09-13. Drugs@FDA (openFDA mirror) returns no drug product with psilocybin as active ingredient, and FDA's 2026 novel drug approvals list (current to 2026-09-11) contains no psilocybin product. The most advanced application, Compass Pathways' COMP360 for treatment-resistant depression, is a rolling NDA: the 2026-08-05 Q2 results say final submission is expected in Q4 2026 and launch in H1 2027 if approved. Rolling review, the Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers (Compass, Usona), breakthrough designations, and state or foreign psilocybin programmes are not FDA approvals; deuterated analogues (CYB003/HLP003) are excluded by the criterion.
- Evidence
- openFDA Drugs@FDA API query for psilocybin (response: NOT_FOUND, 'No matches found!')
- Novel Drug Approvals for 2026 · 11 Sep 2026
- Compass Pathways Announces Second Quarter and First Half 2026 Financial Results and Business Highlights (Form 8-K exhibit) · 5 Aug 2026
- Compass Pathways Announces FDA Granted NDA Rolling Review Request and Awarded Commissioner's National Priority Voucher · 24 Apr 2026
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- 0.49 = (0.70 − 0)²
- Base-rate Brier
- 0.01
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Doblin promised FDA approval of a psilocybin drug product 2 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0003
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions