Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 4 Jun 2031

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 4 Jun 2021 · doblin-0142

Quote

“if we were to do a podcast 10 years from now, my prediction is, we can see if it comes true, is that there's going to be about 5,000 or 6,000 of these centers throughout the United States.”
· The Joe Rogan Experience #1661 - Rick Doblin (transcript) · podcast

Doblin on Joe Rogan #1661 predicts about 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States within 10 years.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Practice adoption
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
4 Jun 2031 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “10 years from now”
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “my prediction is ... there's going to be”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
retrospective
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0087 · deadline 4 Jun 2031 · bin A
Registry entry

The number of treatment centers in the United States that deliver an FDA-approved psychedelic-assisted therapy is about 5,000 to 6,000 by the period end, per the named series.

Resolved on the named data series only: the count of US sites certified to administer an FDA-approved psychedelic-assisted therapy (an MDMA or psilocybin drug product) under that product's REMS, per the REMS program's published certified-site list, summed across approved products with duplicate sites counted once. 'About 5,000 or 6,000' is a point estimate of 5,500 and takes the template's fixed band of plus or minus 20 percent: TRUE when the count at the deadline is 4,400 to 6,600, FALSE otherwise. If no such list has published 12 months after the deadline, the event is unresolvable. Realized values are stored, not scored. Resolution source: the REMS certified-site lists in REMS@FDA.

Resolution source: REMS certified-site lists of FDA-approved psychedelic-assisted therapy products (FDA REMS@FDA database and the REMS program websites)

Readings: 'These centers' = centers delivering psychedelic-assisted therapy (MDMA, psilocybin) in the United States, the subject of the conversation.; 'About 5,000 or 6,000' is read as a point estimate of 5,500 with the template's plus or minus 20 percent band (4,400 to 6,600).

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder C

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
4 Jun 2031
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
The named series shows no certified sites. No MDMA or psilocybin drug product is FDA approved: Drugs@FDA returns no application for midomafetamine or psilocybin, and REMS@FDA lists no REMS for either. The count of US sites certified under such a product's REMS is therefore 0, far below the 4,400 to 6,600 band. The event is not unresolvable today: the criterion allows unresolvable only when no list has published 12 months after the deadline, and the deadline is not visible to the resolver. Realized value 0 is the site count, not a figure published by the series. Not occurred as of 2026-09-14.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 0 events in the field.

saiddueevent
ABOUT 5,000 TO 6,…About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States · stated 4 Jun 2021About 5,000 to 6,000 psychedelic treatment centers in the United States · restated 4 Jun 2021 · p 90%90%TODAY20222024202620282030

Practice adoption

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