Pending · due 25 Mar 2028
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 25 Mar 2026 · doblin-0240
Quote
“When you have the drug plus therapy, if the benefits are great enough, which they've been in terms of outcomes, then insurance will pay for it.”
DoubleBlind feature on the takeover of Lykos (now Resilient) and Doblin's return. Doblin argues that keeping MDMA paired with therapy will secure insurance coverage.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A US health plan covers MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 25 Mar 2028
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “if the benefits are great enough, which they've been in terms of outcomes, then insurance will pay for it”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0116 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
A US health insurer or health plan publishes a coverage policy or public bulletin that covers midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD, including the associated therapy sessions.
TRUE on the effective date of a published medical or coverage policy, fee schedule entry, NCD or LCD, or public policy bulletin from a US health insurer, health plan or government program (Medicare, Medicaid, VA or a commercial plan) that covers midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for post-traumatic stress disorder and pays for both the drug and the therapy sessions delivered with it. A policy that covers the drug alone, a pilot announcement without a policy, or coverage of unapproved use does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such policy has been published.
Resolution source: Payer policy bulletins; CMS Medicare Coverage Database
Readings: 'Insurance will pay for it' names no payer; any US health insurer or program counts.; 'It' is the drug plus therapy, so the policy must cover the therapy sessions as well as the drug.; FDA approval is a practical prerequisite but is not part of the criterion; the event cannot resolve TRUE without it.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 25 Mar 2028
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No US payer has published a policy that covers midomafetamine for PTSD with its therapy sessions. Midomafetamine is not an approved drug: the Drugs@FDA data set returns no match for the substance, and Resilient Pharmaceuticals only resubmitted the NDA in August 2026 after the August 2024 complete response letter. Without an approval there is no covered product, and a search of payer bulletins and the CMS Medicare Coverage Database on 2026-09-14 found no NCD, LCD or commercial policy for midomafetamine. Note: the CMS database search page renders by script and could not be read directly; the finding rests on the absence of any published policy in search results and on the lack of FDA approval. Checked through 2026-09-14 only.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 7 events in the field.
Payer and policy