False · Brier 0.49
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 15 Aug 2016 · doblin-0047
Quote
“Before the Obama Administration leaves office, there is a very good chance it will order the DEA to end the NIDA monopoly and issue a license to Prof. Craker, and to other private producers as well.”
Forecast that the Obama administration will end the NIDA research-cannabis monopoly and license Prof. Lyle Craker (UMass Amherst) before January 2017.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 20 Jan 2017 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “Before the Obama Administration leaves office”
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “there is a very good chance”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0072 · deadline 20 Jan 2017 · bin B
Registry entry
The DEA grants Prof. Lyle Craker (University of Massachusetts Amherst) a Schedule I manufacturer registration to produce marijuana for research.
TRUE on the date the DEA issues a Schedule I bulk manufacturer registration to Prof. Lyle Craker, or to the University of Massachusetts Amherst facility he directs, for the manufacture of marijuana for research, as published in the Federal Register or announced by the DEA Diversion Control Division. A DEA policy statement that it will accept applications, an acceptance of an application for filing, or a court or administration order directing the DEA to act is not a registration. Resolution source: the Federal Register DEA registration notices. FALSE at the deadline when no such registration has been issued.
Resolution source: Federal Register (DEA registration notices); DEA Diversion Control Division announcements
Readings: 'Order the DEA to ... issue a license to Prof. Craker' resolves on the DEA registration itself, whoever ordered it; the administration's order is the means, the registration the outcome.; The words tie the registration to the end of the NIDA monopoly on research cannabis supply; the registration of Craker is the outcome this entry holds.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- False
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 20 Jan 2017
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The DEA has never registered Prof. Lyle Craker or a University of Massachusetts Amherst facility as a bulk manufacturer of marihuana. His June 2001 application was denied by the DEA on 2009-01-14. The DEA Notice of Registration lists for bulk manufacturers, 2019 through 2026, contain no University of Massachusetts, Amherst or Craker entry, and the DEA marihuana growers page lists seven registered growers, none of them UMass. Craker died in May 2022. Not resolved by inference: this is the DEA's own registration record as of 2026-09-14.
- Evidence
- Notice of Registration (NOR), Bulk Manufacturers, 2019 to 2026: no entry for the University of Massachusetts, Amherst or Lyle Craker · 14 Sep 2026
- Marihuana Growers Information: DEA-registered bulk manufacturers of marihuana (BRC, Groff NA Hemplex, Irvine Labs, Maridose, National Center for Development of Natural Products, Royal Emerald, Scottsdale Research Institute) · 14 Sep 2026
- Lyle E. Craker; Denial of Application · 14 Jan 2009
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Doblin promised DEA registers Prof. Lyle Craker to manufacture cannabis for research 2 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0072
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions