Void · Condition unmet
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 12 Dec 2022 · doblin-0182
Quote
“What schedule it goes in is up to the DEA and the FDA controlled substances staff. And they kind of negotiate together. We hope it'll be schedule three or schedule four.”
Doblin on The Third Wave episode 173 expects the DEA to reschedule MDMA within 90 days of approval and hopes it lands in Schedule III or IV.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- DEA places midomafetamine (MDMA) in Schedule III or Schedule IV
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 12 Dec 2024
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “We hope it'll be schedule three or schedule four” · coders disagreed on the bin (A vs C); mean of 0.90 and 0.50
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0089 · deadline none · bin C
Registry entry
The DEA rule that reschedules midomafetamine (MDMA), or an FDA-approved midomafetamine drug product, places it in Schedule III or Schedule IV of the Controlled Substances Act.
TRUE on the publication date in the Federal Register of the DEA final rule (or interim final rule) that reschedules midomafetamine (MDMA), or an FDA-approved midomafetamine drug product, when that rule places it in Schedule III or Schedule IV. FALSE on the publication date of a rescheduling rule that places it in Schedule II or Schedule V, and FALSE at the deadline when no rescheduling rule has been published. A proposed rule or an HHS/FDA scheduling recommendation does not count. Resolution source: the Federal Register.
Resolution source: Federal Register
Readings: 'Schedule three or schedule four' is 'A or B': one event.; 'It' = MDMA (the MAPS product) once the DEA acts on it.
How to read
Coder C
Resolution
- State
- VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 12 Dec 2024
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No DEA rescheduling rule for MDMA exists, so no rule has placed it in Schedule III or Schedule IV. The Federal Register holds no DEA final or interim final rule on midomafetamine or MDMA rescheduling, and DEA's current list keeps 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine in Schedule I. The event stays open rather than false, because the criterion sets FALSE only on the publication date of a rule placing the substance in Schedule II or V, or at the deadline. Not occurred as of 2026-09-14; this says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions