Void · Condition unmet
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 4 Jun 2021 · doblin-0148
Quote
“So that if we make MDMA into a medicine, we think Texas will reschedule automatically, and we think that the Commissioner of Public Health will not object to that, although we don't know, but we're already trying to educate them.”
Doblin on Joe Rogan #1661 predicts that after FDA approval Texas will reschedule MDMA automatically and the state public health commissioner will not object.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Texas reschedules MDMA out of Schedule I after FDA approval
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 4 Jun 2023
- Probability
- 0.70 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › B · “we think Texas will reschedule automatically”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- affiliated, conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0086 · deadline none · bin B
Registry entry
Texas moves MDMA (midomafetamine), or the FDA-approved MDMA drug product, out of Schedule I of the Texas Schedules of Controlled Substances into a schedule that permits prescription.
TRUE on the effective date of a Texas Register notice or a Texas Department of State Health Services schedule action that removes MDMA (midomafetamine) or an FDA-approved MDMA drug product from Schedule I of the Texas Schedules of Controlled Substances, or places it in Schedule II, III, IV or V. A schedule change that takes effect through the Commissioner of Health's non-objection to a federal rescheduling counts the same as any other schedule action. A federal DEA rescheduling alone, a proposal or a legislative bill does not resolve the event. Resolution source: the Texas Register (Texas Secretary of State) and the DSHS Texas Schedules of Controlled Substances page. FALSE at the deadline when no such Texas schedule action has taken effect.
Resolution source: Texas Register (Texas Secretary of State) and the Texas Department of State Health Services schedules of controlled substances
Readings: 'Reschedule automatically' = the Texas procedure by which a federal schedule change takes effect in Texas unless the Commissioner of Health objects; the words forecast the Texas schedule outcome, and 'the Commissioner of Public Health will not object' is the mechanism, not a second event.; 'If we make MDMA into a medicine' = FDA approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (E-0001); the event resolves only when that condition occurs.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 4 Jun 2023
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No Texas schedule action has taken effect. The DSHS schedules page lists every schedule order through the notice effective 2026-07-31 (tetrahydrocannabinols) and the orders effective 2026-04-03; none touches MDMA or midomafetamine, and the page does not name either substance. MDMA stays in Texas Schedule I (Penalty Group 2). The federal trigger has also not fired: DEA still lists MDMA in Schedule I, and the midomafetamine NDA is under FDA review after the 2024 complete response letter, so no FDA-approved MDMA product exists for Texas to reschedule. Not occurred as of 2026-09-14; this says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions