Pending · due 31 Dec 2035
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 27 Oct 2021 · doblin-0019
Quote
“I think what's going to happen is that it will take 10 years for the culture to really move to the point where we're ready for a licensed legalization. That will be 2035”
A licensed-legalization system for psychedelics (trained-use licenses) will arrive around 2035.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Payer and policy
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2035 AnchorThe fixed table that turns the person's own words ('by 2026', 'Q2', 'within two years') into a deadline. The coder never invents a date. Method › · “That will be 2035”
- Probability
- 0.80 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “I think what's going to happen is that it will take 10 years ... That will be 2035” · coders disagreed on the bin (A vs B); mean of 0.90 and 0.70
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- None in the table
- Tags
- prospective, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- not admittedA statement that failed intake for a logged reason code. Listed and counted, never scored. Method › (Vague or promotional) · event new · deadline none · bin –
Registry entry
A United States federal or state law, regulation or programme takes effect under which an adult who holds a licence may lawfully buy a psychedelic drug and take it without medical supervision.
TRUE on the effective date of the first federal or state law, regulation or licensed programme in the United States, as published in the Federal Register, a state register or the text of the enacted bill, under which an adult who holds a licence, permit or certificate may lawfully purchase a psychedelic drug (for example psilocybin, MDMA or LSD) and take it on their own, outside medical or facilitator supervision. A programme that requires the dose to be taken under supervision at a licensed service centre, a medical prescription route, a decriminalisation measure that removes penalties without creating a licence to purchase, and a bill that has not taken effect, do not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such law, regulation or programme has taken effect. Resolution source: the Federal Register and state legislature records.
Resolution source: Federal Register; state registers and enacted state legislation (state legislature records)
Readings: 'Licensed legalization' and 'a licensed regulatory system for adults to legally access psychedelics to take on their own' are read as one outcome: a licence that lets an adult buy a psychedelic and take it unsupervised.; 'We' is read as the United States, the jurisdiction the forecaster speaks about in every version of this claim.; A supervised-use service-centre programme does not count, because the forecaster's own words say 'to do on their own' and 'without supervision by therapists'.; 'Access to minors only with permission from their parents or guardians' is a detail of the vision, not part of the criterion.; 'After a decade of clinics' and 'in a post-prohibition world' are the forecaster's reasons, not second conditions.; Psilocybin, MDMA and LSD are the drugs the forecaster names ('A or B' is one event).; The forecaster names no jurisdiction beyond the United States, so the first enacting US jurisdiction, federal or a state, counts; this reading is logged at intake.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 31 Dec 2035
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- No US federal or state law, rule or licensed programme lets a licence holder buy a psychedelic and take it unsupervised, as of 2026-09-14. The closest development is Colorado HB26-1325, signed 2026-06-04 and effective 2026-08-12, with emergency rules for a Limited Regulated Natural Medicine Sales License. That licence is tied to supervision: the bill widens administration session to cover product the participant buys to consume during the administration session, and healing centers may not sell except through a co-located limited sales licensee. Oregon keeps consumption at a licensed service center with a facilitator. Executive Order 14401 of 2026-04-18 speeds research, investigational access and rescheduling review; it creates no purchase licence. This says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
- BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
- Not scored
- RestatementsAll of one person's items on one registry event. A cluster is one observation in every metric, so a claim repeated six times still gets one vote. Method ›
- doblin-0124doblin-0152
How to read
Registry
Receding horizon
Doblin promised A US licence lets adults legally buy psychedelics for unsupervised personal use 2 times; it has not happened.
Cluster E-0134
Timeline
1 claim against 26 events in the field.
Payer and policy