Void · Condition unmet
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Rick Doblin · Said 19 Feb 2024 · doblin-0210
Quote
“So once we, if we do get FDA approval, it will very shortly thereafter be approved in Israel and Canada.”
Doblin on the Shawn Ryan Show #97 predicts approval of MDMA-assisted therapy in Israel and Canada shortly after FDA approval.
Intake
- EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
- Israel Ministry of Health approval of midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for PTSD
- AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
- Regulatory decisions
- DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
- None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 19 Feb 2026
- Probability
- 0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “if we do get FDA approval, it will very shortly thereafter be approved in Israel and Canada”
- Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
- phase3_to_approval_psychiatry · 0.56 · halvedWhen the item window is shorter than the base-rate class's median time to decision, the base rate is halved. The halved value is an upper bound that favours the person. Method › to 0.28 (window shorter than the median 36 months)
- Tags
- affiliated, conditional, retrospective
- Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
- admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0080 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry
The Israel Ministry of Health registers (approves) midomafetamine (MDMA-assisted therapy) for post-traumatic stress disorder.
TRUE on the date the Israel Ministry of Health registers a midomafetamine (MDMA) drug product with an indication of post-traumatic stress disorder in its drug registry, under any sponsor name, or the date the sponsor announces that registration. A compassionate-use or named-patient permit, an expanded-access programme, or a clinical trial authorization is not an approval. A label narrower than PTSD counts if the claim's indication reasonably includes it and the reading is logged at intake. Resolution source: the Israel Ministry of Health drug registry, with the sponsor's press release as a secondary source. FALSE at the deadline when no such registration appears there.
Resolution source: Israel Ministry of Health drug registry (Israel Drug Registry); sponsor press release as a secondary source
Readings: 'It will also become approved in Israel' = marketing registration by the Israel Ministry of Health; the words give no date, only the condition of FDA approval.; Base rate class is fixed per item from the asset's stage on each statement date; the event-level class is null.
How to read
Coder A
Resolution
- State
- VoidAn item that cannot be scored: the coders disagreed (AMBIGUOUS), the condition was unmet, or the source never published (UNRESOLVABLE). Counted, never scored. Method ›
- Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
- 19 Feb 2026
- Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
- not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
- Resolver note
- The Israel Drug Registry shows no registered midomafetamine (MDMA) product for PTSD. Access in Israel remains through Ministry of Health approved clinical trials and the 2019 compassionate-use programme, both excluded by the criterion; a December 2025 report states MDMA is available only through Health Ministry approved trials. No sponsor has announced an Israeli registration. Caveat: the registry search interface needs a form query, so the check combines the registry site with dated secondary reports. Checked 2026-09-14; this says nothing about later dates.
- Evidence
- Israel Drug Registry (Ministry of Health, Pharmacy Division): no registered midomafetamine (MDMA) product · 14 Sep 2026
- A Psychedelic Pivot: Israel Tests MDMA in Group Sessions To Tackle PTSD · 29 Dec 2025
- MDMA-Assisted Therapy for PTSD: Israel (MP9) · 14 Sep 2026
- MAPS Responds to Report of Progress for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD with FDA · 10 Aug 2026
How to read
Registry
Timeline
1 claim against 60 events in the field.
Regulatory decisions