Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Pending · due 21 Apr 2028

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Rick Doblin · Said 21 Apr 2026 · doblin-0241

Quote

“A lot of regulatory agencies around the world are looking for the United States to go first, particularly the FDA… if MDMA or psilocybin is approved in the U.S., then they’ll approve it in Ukraine.”
· Psychedelics Research: What Does Trump's New Executive Order Mean? · article

Rolling Stone explainer on Trump's April 2026 psychedelics executive order. Doblin on the global ripple effect of a US approval.

Intake

EventA proposition written from a template on the asset, with a resolution criterion and a named public source, before the outcome is looked up. The same event resolves every person's items on it. Method ›
Ukraine approves an MDMA or psilocybin drug product
AreaOne of five topic classes: regulatory decisions, clinical trial outcomes, company and market outcomes, payer and policy, practice adoption. Every event has one area. Method ›
Regulatory decisions
DeadlineThe date by which the event must happen for the item to be true. It comes only from the person's words through the anchor table. Method ›
None stated · undated panelItems with no deadline in the person's words, scored on a uniform 24-month window from the statement date. Part of the headline panel since rules 1.1.0; also shown on its own. Method ›, 24-month window to 21 Apr 2028
Probability
0.90 LexiconThe fixed five-bin table that turns a phrase into a probability. The strongest phrase in the claim sentence decides; coders never read tone. Method › · binOne of five lexicon steps: A 'will' 0.90, B 'probably' 0.70, C 'may' 0.50, D 'unlikely' 0.30, E 'never' 0.10. A stated number goes to the nearest bin for calibration only. Method › A · “if MDMA or psilocybin is approved in the U.S., then they'll approve it in Ukraine”
Base rateThe probability a published external study gives an event of that class and stage, fixed at intake. Halved when the item window is shorter than the class median time to decision. Never learned from the ledger's own items. Method ›
None in the table
Tags
affiliated, conditional, retrospective
Condition
FDA approves an MDMA or psilocybin drug product
Coder BCohen's kappa: agreement between two coders beyond chance, from -1 to 1. Reported for admit, event, deadline, bin and asserts from the second-coder match test. Method ›
admittedA statement that passed intake: sincere, the person's own claim, forward-looking, inside the five areas, and not excluded by a reason code. Only admitted statements become items. Method › · event E-0118 · deadline none · bin A
Registry entry

The Ministry of Health of Ukraine grants a marketing authorisation (state registration) for a drug product whose active ingredient is midomafetamine (MDMA) or psilocybin, for any indication.

TRUE on the date of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine order, or the entry in the State Register of Medicinal Products of Ukraine, that registers a medicinal product whose active ingredient is midomafetamine (MDMA) or psilocybin for any indication (or the sponsor's announcement of that registration). A clinical trial authorisation, an import permit for a trial, a compassionate-use or named-patient permission, or an approval in another country does not count. FALSE at the deadline when no such registration exists.

Resolution source: State Register of Medicinal Products of Ukraine (Ministry of Health of Ukraine); sponsor press release

Readings: 'MDMA or psilocybin' is one event ('A or B'); either drug's registration resolves it.; 'They'll approve it' names the Ukrainian regulator through 'in Ukraine'; the deciding body is the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the State Expert Center's recommendation.

How to read
The event, criterion and deadline were written at intake, before the outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method › was looked up. Coder B coded the statement independently.

Coder A

Resolution

State
PendingAn item whose deadline has not passed. Counted, never scored. Method ›
Effective deadlineAn item enters the score only when its deadline has passed and the outcome is true or false. A claim already known true still waits for its deadline. Method ›
21 Apr 2028
Outcome1 if the registry event happened on or before the item's deadline, 0 if it did not. Written by a resolver who never sees p. Method ›
not occurred · checked through 14 Sep 2026
Resolver note
I downloaded the full State Register of Medicinal Products of Ukraine on 2026-09-14: 16,494 product rows. No row names psilocybin, midomafetamine/MDMA, mebufotenin or lysergide in any field. The same file contains 18 ketamine rows and 6 esketamine rows, so the check finds controlled substances when they are registered. Ukrainian reform to date is limited to a proposed rescheduling for research and a national drug strategy goal; Drug Science reports on 2026-05-14 that the rescheduling is still not approved. No Ministry of Health registration order and no sponsor announcement of a registration exists as of 2026-09-14.
Evidence
BrierThe squared gap between a probability and the outcome, (p - o)^2. 0 is perfect, 0.25 is the constant coin flip, 1 is confidently wrong. Lower is better. Method ›
Not scored
How to read
State at window close; the outcome comes from the registry, the score from the rule.

Registry

Timeline

1 claim against 17 events in the field.

saiddueevent
23 Apr 2026 · DOJ / DEA (Acting AG Blanche): Final order moves FDA-approved marijuana products and state-licensed medical mar24 Apr 2026 · FDA: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360 psilocy24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways: FDA grants Compass a rolling NDA submission and review for COMP360 psilocybin in24 Apr 2026 · FDA / Compass Pathways, Usona Institute, Transcend Therapeutics: FDA awards Commissioner's National Priority Vouchers to Compass (COMP360), Usona24 Apr 2026 · FDA Commissioner Marty Makary: Makary says he expects an FDA approval decision on at least one priority psyched30 Apr 2026 · Axsome Therapeutics (Auvelity / AXS-05): FDA approves Auvelity for agitation associated with Alzheimer's disease, the fir23 Jun 2026 · Louisiana Legislature: SB 43 becomes Act 956 without the governor's signature after unanimous votes, cr24 Jun 2026 · FDA / Janssen: FDA approves Spravato REMS modification S-029 with updated REMS website workflow26 Jun 2026 · Oregon Health Authority: OHA proposes fee increases for the psilocybin services program ahead of the Sept29 Jun 2026 · DEA: Expedited administrative hearing opens on broader rescheduling of marijuana, inc13 Jul 2026 · FDA (psychedelic drugs guidance): FDA finalizes 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Investigations', s14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA finalizes the guidance 'Psychedelic Drugs: Considerations for Clinical Inves14 Jul 2026 · FDA: FDA announces a September 14, 2026 public hearing on future therapeutic use of p10 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (ex-Lykos, midomafetamine): Resilient resubmits the MDMA-assisted therapy NDA for PTSD without a new phase 310 Aug 2026 · Resilient Pharmaceuticals (formerly Lykos): Company resubmits its NDA for MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD (proposed brand Rys25 Aug 2026 · DEA: DEA sends its final telemedicine special registration rule to OIRA for review; tDEA: DEA SENDS ITS FINAL TELEMEDICINE SPECIAL REGISTRATION RULE TO OIRA FOR REVIEW; T8 Sep 2026 · Definium Therapeutics (DT120): FDA grants Breakthrough Therapy Designation to DT120 (lysergide) ODT in MDD follUKRAINE APPROVES…Ukraine approves an MDMA or psilocybin drug product · stated 21 Apr 2026Ukraine approves an MDMA or psilocybin drug product · restated 21 Apr 2026 · p 90%90%TODAY20272028

Regulatory decisions

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