Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Report or scoop

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Report or scoop

“It takes about $2b to bring one of these medications to market, given the global market is $16.14 billion in 2023, growing to $24.35 billion by 2030; these have been a very profitable class of medications.”
· Lurasidone · substack post

Footnote 4 of the lurasidone post, on why Sunovion skipped a mania indication: it takes about $2b to bring one of these medications (atypical antipsychotics) to market, and the author states the global market is $16.14 billion in 2023, growing to $24.35 billion by 2030, calling the class very profitable. The figures read as a restated market-research projection with no named source.

The statement passes on information rather than an expectation: cites sources ('I am told', 'sources say'), or names a date for another organization's internal action (layoffs, hires, closures) 30 days or less ahead. Listed in the reports table with a confirmation rate, never scored.