Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“It may be that 30% powered iTBS is enough to have a treatment effect! That could be why there is no separation between these two groups, as both were effectively active. I have reasons to doubt this is the case.”
· fMRI-Guided rTMS Doesn't Work For Everything · substack post

Author weighs whether the 30%-output sham in the knee osteoarthritis trial was itself active, which would explain the lack of separation from active fMRI-guided aiTBS; he doubts it while noting it is not impossible.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.