Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“In the next installment of this piece, I will review the impact on the mental health system specifically, and highlight instances where I suspect the most parsimonious explanation for why things aren’t any good is the above rationale. We will stress test the assumptions, and we will look at fascinating/horrible edge cases.”
· The Passion of the Medical Loss Ratio: Why Hath Payers Forsaken Mental Health Treatments that Work? · substack post

Programming note: part two of 'The Passion of the Medical Loss Ratio' will apply the MLR argument to the mental health system.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.