Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Even if we divide that in half, it's still better than humans. That's more living beautiful, brilliant younger sisters with an engineering degrees still with us, and less time spending talking to lawyers at car insurance companies.”
· Human Drivers Are A Public Health Menace (And One Tried to Kill Me Recently!) · substack post

Discussing Tesla's Q1 2025 Autopilot safety report (about 9x safer by Tesla's own numbers) and Waymo/Swiss Re data (92% fewer injury claims). The author claims that even a halved safety advantage means self-driving adoption would result in fewer traffic deaths (reference to Katie Fisher, killed by a driver in 2010).

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.