Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Normative

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 11 Dec 2025 · owen-1969

Quote

Normative

“The sham? It will need to be improved to preserve the blind in future trials!”
· Depression Treated At-Home Without Meds? A First FDA-Approved Device is Here · substack post

Functional unblinding in the EMPOWER at-home tDCS trial (77.6% in active vs 59.3% in sham guessed active; skin redness far higher in active); the author says the sham must improve in future trials.

'Should', 'must', 'ought to', 'needs to' with no predictive reading.

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