Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Which, of course, per the math above, would increase rates of suicide by 0.98% per 10% increase above the baseline rate at which hospitalization would occur in edge cases.”
· Is Involuntary Psychiatric Hospitalization Causing Harm? · substack post

Applies the Emanuel et al. (NY Fed Staff Report 1158) estimate to the administration's executive order 'Restoring Civil Commitment': pushing edge-case hospitalization toward 100% would raise suicide/overdose deaths by 0.98 percentage points per 10-point rise in hospitalization propensity.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.