Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“About half of what you learn will turn out to be wrong, later; because science progresses. You just don’t know which half.”
· How Much Do Neurosurgeons Learn About Adult ADHD? · substack post

Rerun of an older post on medical education (neurosurgeons and adult ADHD). In the section on the basic science curriculum, the author asserts that about half of what medical students learn will later prove wrong.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.