Not admitted · Outside the five areas
Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026
Owen Scott Muir · Said 4 Nov 2024 · owen-1302
Quote
Outside the five areas
“Nate points out that the overabundance of polls showing this to be a very close race is evidence that the polls are wrong—they aren’t normally distributed! This means there is a systematic bias in the results we are seeing.”
Same essay, published the day before the 2024 US presidential election. Following Nate Silver's 'herding' argument (swing-state polls cluster too tightly around 50-50 to be honest samples with a 3-4% margin of error), the author concludes the polls are almost certainly wrong, that is, carry a systematic error.
Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.