Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“This is why expensive and error-prone universal screening like preneuvo is a terrible idea. The test will get it wrong enough that people will be subjected to subsequent risk from excessive and invasive workups to follow up on an incidental finding that wouldn't have mattered.”
· The Election Polls Are All Wrong!?! · substack post

Statistics essay on sampling, sensitivity and specificity, applied to election polls. Aside on universal screening: whole-body screening like Prenuvo ('preneuvo') will produce enough false positives that people will face risk from invasive follow-up workups.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.