Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“My prediction? It won’t get this preventative treatment to everyone who needs it with alacrity. We could wipe out AIDS and HIV. Our species, predictably, won’t make that choice.”
· We Can Prevent HIV Infection At 100% Efficacy...But Not Afford It?!? · substack post

Explicitly labeled prediction: despite discount pricing for poor countries, lenacapavir will not reach everyone who needs it quickly.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.