Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“It gave me a new tool here on Substack, and I’ll use it less-than-polishedly.”
· Infidelity: A Failure of Mentalizing? · substack podcast

Short video/podcast post responding to reader feedback on the infidelity column. The author says Substack gave him a new video tool and he intends to keep using it in an unpolished way.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.