Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“Now we are at 25 companies founded or hiring CMOs from 25 physicians. 90% of startups fail: that is 2.5 physicians left winning the race to become a billion dollar company (at a minimum).”
· "Why Isn't Someone Already Doing This?" · substack post

End of the illustrative funnel: from 56,536 US psychiatrists, through TMS and ketamine practitioners, research authorship, in-network status, retirement, Y Combinator acceptance and startup failure rates, the author estimates that roughly 2.5 physician-led companies could become billion-dollar companies. He states up front that the math is not serious and he is making a point.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.