Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Pictures of brains, I suspect, will be more convincing. The more colorful, the more convincing.”
· The Science of Convincingness · substack post

Post written from the Neuromodec neuromodulation conference in NYC. The author shows three photos of research posters (one on HD-tACS for memory) and asks readers in an in-post poll which is most convincing. He predicts readers will find brain images, especially colorful ones, more convincing, then cites 2008 and 2013 studies on neuroimage bias.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.