Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Costs have to go up every year, and because multiple companies are in the space, they essentially have to go up somewhat uniformly across all companies. That way, premiums for everybody go up by some semi-palatable amount yearly.”
· The Passion of the Medical Loss Ratio · substack post

MLR mechanics section. The author predicts that health insurer costs and premiums rise every year, roughly uniformly across carriers, as a structural consequence of the 80/20 MLR rule.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.