Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“And if placebo response is getting more and more robust (according to expert raters), that becomes harder.”
· Whence, Placebo? Controlled Trials Beyond Double Blind RCTs · substack post Paid

Citing a meta-analysis (Rief et al. 2009) showing rising expert-rated placebo response in antidepressant trials, the author says beating placebo to demonstrate efficacy becomes harder if that trend continues.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.