Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“What I have not addressed is the lack of efficacy in bipolar depression . We will save that for tomorrow.”
· Abilify II: Bipolar Disorder (Mania) · substack post

Closing of Abilify II (mania): the author has not addressed aripiprazole's lack of efficacy in bipolar depression and says the next article, tomorrow, will cover it. He then hedges: 'That will be tomorrow…probably!'

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.