Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“The FDA review of this non-label makes it clear—people are going to prescribe this anyway. Nothing we say about this negative trial will stop them.”
· Abilify I · substack post

Section 'Irritability Associated with Autism…Problematic Data' of Abilify I. Otsuka's maintenance trial of aripiprazole for irritability in autistic children was negative (p=0.097) and the FDA declined a maintenance label. The author quotes the FDA reviewer ('It is unlikely that the results ... would significantly alter the clinical practice of prescribers ... it is likely that aripiprazole would be continued') and adopts the view that prescribers will keep using it regardless.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.