Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“The Department of Justice can put you in jail. I think that's highly unlikely…but anti-trust enforcement, especially in the context of a very high-profile ransomware attack, where the FBI could be of help in decrypting files…”
· Change Healthcare is a Big Enough Problem for United Healthcare to Notice. · substack post Paid

The DOJ opened a non-public antitrust investigation into UnitedHealth Group in October 2023 and served a document preservation notice. The author notes the DOJ can jail people but judges jail highly unlikely; the trailing sentence implies antitrust enforcement, amid the Change Healthcare ransomware attack, is the more plausible outcome.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.