Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“enough to get the man his Nobel in medicine, perhaps his other publication—TODAY— in nature medicine on the role of magnesium-ibogaine therapy in special operations veterans with traumatic brain injuries will do it.”
· A SHIFT in The Possible: fMRI Guided Brain Stimulation Crosses a New Threshold · substack post

The author openly campaigns for Nolan Williams to receive the Nobel Prize in Medicine ('this goal of mine has not been kept secret'). He suggests that if the SHIFT paper is not enough, Williams' same-day Nature Medicine paper on magnesium-ibogaine therapy in special operations veterans with traumatic brain injury (Cherian et al., 2024) may secure the Nobel.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.