Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“I bet all the people who are bad at math could still figure out that firing Sam Altman when he created a $90 billion valuation company with an additional $10 billion from Microsoft would not fly with either Microsoft or anybody else who cared about the money”
· We Shouldn't Fear Artificial General Intelligence more than Human General Intelligence · substack post

The author argues the OpenAI board failed to 'do the math': firing Sam Altman would not be accepted by Microsoft or other money-interested parties. Written 2023-11-23, after the firing; the post already calls the firing a failed landing.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.