Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 29 Aug 2023 · owen-0692

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Again, if you're training a large language model, you're going to miss the fact that this is a joke, because it's not obviously different from the text itself.”
· Curb Your Enthusiasm for Large Language Models · substack post Paid

Essay arguing that LLMs underperform because training text lacks the implicit 'metadata' of human intent. Using a Curb Your Enthusiasm therapy scene, the author claims that LLM training will fail to recognize the transcript as satire.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.

← Earlier · Later → · All statements