Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“you will get a very brutal regression to the mean. At best, you're going to be presented with the average of what we think, with some guard rails about its awfulness.”
· The Disappointment with Generative AI...is Hilariously Human · substack post

Post on the disappointment with generative AI, written from vacation. The author argues that a model trained on average human output, minus the human ability to tell nonsense from sense, regresses to the mean: at best generative AI presents the average of what humans think, with guard rails. He later names ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion and compares poorly designed generative AI to mendacious politicians.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.