Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Costs have to go up every year, and because there are multiple companies in the space, they essentially have to go up somewhat uniformly across all of the companies. That way premiums for everybody go up some semi-palatable amount every year.”
· The Passion of the Medical Loss Ratio: Why Hath Payers Forsaken Mental Health Treatments that Work? · substack post

Core mechanism of the essay: because the MLR caps the insurer margin as a percentage, insurers must grow total spending to grow profit, so costs and premiums rise every year across all carriers roughly uniformly. Earlier: 'if you can only ever make a 20% profit margin, and you still want to increase profits, you need to increase both premium costs and what you spend on care.'

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.