Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Commitment (own venture)

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 25 Aug 2026 · owen-2482

Quote

Commitment (own venture)

“If we can get it to One Shot, and with a pre-test probability to know what's the best treatment for you, that's a better state of the world by a long shot for the patient, who is our customer. Payers will be pleased because they won't have to pay for subsequent trials of things that were unlikely to be effective, which we literally could have predicted.”
· Radial's Acquisition Reshapes The Brain Medicine Market (Neurotech Futures, republished from Forbes) · interview

Same interview. On Radial's use of EEG, MRI, vocal and video biomarkers to predict treatment response, Muir argues payers will value prediction tools that avoid ineffective treatment trials.

The forecaster's own organization can make the outcome happen by its own decision: clinic openings, product launches, hires, trial starts, filings by their own company. Listed in the commitments table, never scored.

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