Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Owen Scott Muir · Said 11 May 2026 · owen-2236

Quote

Vague or promotional

“That suggests that the difference that Dr. Carpenter has detected is actually a very large one—anything you can see clearly in a small sample is more likely to be a big difference at scale, if it replicates.”
· Finally, ADHD Has A Published accelerated TMS Trial · substack post

Interpreting the results of the 34-adolescent double-blind sham-controlled crossover trial of iTBS for ADHD (significant effects on parent-reported working memory, ADHD symptoms, anger, depression, anxiety). The author infers the effect is likely large at scale, conditional on replication.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.

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