Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“It will make misunderstandings, which are important to understand. ... You need a sense of how AI will be wrong to navigate the future”
· I Have a Confession to Make · substack post

Advice to try a small agent task within one's risk tolerance. The author asserts an error-prone AI agent will make misunderstandings and that AI will be wrong; earlier he writes 'Expect mistakes, that's one lesson' and that it gets things wrong 'all the time right now'.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.