Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Third-party claim

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Third-party claim

“if you calculate who’s treatment-resistant and how many infusions they’d need in a year, you’re talking about 50,000 to 60,000 medically significant adverse events annually”
· The One-in-a-Thousand Problem: Ketamine Safety Can’t Be an Afterthought · substack post

Interviewee Nico Grundmann (co-founder, Ember Health) scales Ember's one-in-a-thousand rate of medically significant adverse events to the treatment-resistant subset of roughly 30 million US adults with major depression or bipolar disorder, arguing that at population scale monitored care is mandatory (seatbelt analogy).

A quoted or paraphrased claim by someone else that the author does not adopt as their own.