Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“Because now a lot of users might start making accounts pretending to be way older than they actually are. And no age check actually works, because they just get their parents to do it for them.” I want to pause here, because this is correct. The circumvention literature on age-gating bears it out.”
· I Let My 9-Year-Old Make Her Case for Being on HardFork. · substack post

Interview with the author's daughter Quinn (9) about appearing on the Hard Fork podcast. On Australia's ban of social platforms for young users, Quinn predicts users will make accounts claiming to be older and that no age check works because parents complete it. The author endorses this ('this is correct'), then asks 'So you think the Australia ban is going to backfire?' and she answers 'Yeah.'

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.