Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“If you’re in a study at all, you’re going to do better, which is why we randomize to placebo in the first place.”
· Solving Clinical Trials...With Power · substack post

Author's remark in the discussion of placebo with Brandon Li: people enrolled in a clinical trial do better regardless of arm, which is the reason trials randomize to placebo. A general claim about trial participation, not a dated forecast.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.