Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“So we only study new treatments— that may be better than existing treatments— in people who failed existing treatments. And then, the FDA approves it in that population, and now insurance won't cover it for anybody else, because it wasn't studied.”
· Treatment-Resistant Depression: A Dissent · substack post

Essay dissenting from the 'treatment-resistant depression' label. Setup: sponsors prefer TRD trials because low placebo response makes them cheaper, so new treatments get studied only in people who failed prior drugs. The author generalizes: the FDA then approves in that population and insurers refuse coverage for everyone else. He calls this the 'first-line treatment trap'.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.