Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“However, it is perfectly reasonable to say, to parents and kids, in the fallout after a suicide attempt, that the most likely outcome, by a mile, is that the kids will be ok.”
· Most Young Kids Who Attempt Suicide Will Be Alright! · substack post

The author reads Bommersbach et al., JAMA Psychiatry 2025: 164 early adolescents (age 10 to 14) followed up to 36 years after a first suicide attempt; none died by suicide and 80 percent had good long-term outcomes. He generalizes this to what parents should expect after an attempt.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.