Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

““Stable rates of terrible things” is not a phenomenon to count on in 2025, it seems.”
· Is Murder-Suicide A New "Rare Disease" Category? · substack post

On Keyes et al. (JAMA Netw Open 2025): murder-suicide rates were about 0.2-0.3 per 100,000 before 2004 and rose to 0.5 in 2022. The author implies rates will not hold stable in 2025, i.e. the rise continues.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.