Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Outside the five areas

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Outside the five areas

“And, of course, this means that hospitalizing more people against their will—by legal fiat—is a terrible idea, as it will lead to more deaths: At a 100% hospitalization rate, the risk increases to 3.3% for the three months after discharge.”
· Is Involuntary Psychiatric Hospitalization Causing Harm? · substack post

Math section (checked with two mathematicians) using a linear model P(Y)=b0+0.022*propensity from Emanuel et al. If the administration's policy pushes edge-case hospitalization to 100%, the 3-month suicide/overdose death risk rises to about 3.3% from a 1.1% baseline, an 'Adjusted Average Administration Harm' of about 2.3%.

Outside the five area definitions in areas.json: not a regulatory decision, trial outcome, company or market outcome, payer or policy decision, or practice adoption about drugs, devices or treatments in psychiatry, or about payment for and access to them. The registry applies the same test when it consolidates proposed events.