Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Not a forecast

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Not a forecast

“Thirteen million people in the US will have PTSD in any given year. 600/100,000 will have PTSD in their lifetime.”
· The FDA AdCom Rejects Brexpiprazole/Sertraline for PTSD this Week · substack post

Background on the PTSD burden in the brexpiprazole/sertraline AdCom post: 13 million Americans will have PTSD in any given year and 600 per 100,000 will have it in their lifetime, with a two times higher incidence in women, which the author attributes in part to child sexual abuse rates in girls.

Descriptive, retrospective, or a statement of preference; no future state asserted.