Forecast Ledgerinterventional psychiatry and psychedelic medicineQuoted, dated predictions scored against public outcomes under one written method. Every score links to the words, the rule and the evidence.

Not admitted · Vague or promotional

Rules 1.1.0 · as of 14 Sep 2026

Quote

Vague or promotional

“The replication will be challenging, and it is also a moral imperative. This is a revolution, assuming it replicates, and if only decision makers notice.”
· Effective Treatment for Antisocial Personality Disorder · substack post

Closing paragraph on the MOAM randomized controlled trial (Fonagy et al., Lancet Psychiatry 2025) of mentalization-based treatment (MBT-ASPD) for antisocial personality disorder in male offenders on probation in England and Wales (effect size 0.74, fewer offences at year 3). The author expects replication of the trial to be difficult and calls it a moral imperative.

No entity, observable event, benchmark or threshold can be written from the text and its immediate context. Slogans ('game changer', 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunity', 'favourite stock') and quantifiers with no countable set ('more', 'first', 'all') without a defined set.